Lately, an interesting argument has come to my attention: ChatGPT only looks into the past, whereas humans can look into the future. This idea stems from the fact that AI is trained on past data, and for instance, ChatGPT’s knowledge of the world is limited to the last date of its training material. However, this does not directly mean that AI is only looking at the past.
Machine Learning Always Faces the Unknown
The fundamental principle of machine learning has always been to train AI on past data and test it on new, unseen data. This ensures that AI functions as expected even when encountering entirely new information.
Before large language models, language technology-based machine learning models often struggled when faced with completely new types of data. For example, AI trained on product reviews did not perform well in identifying positive and negative expressions in literary texts. However, these limitations have been overcome with large language models, as they can generalize their learning to perform multiple different tasks.
Do Humans Really Look into the Future Any Better?
When we humans encounter something new, we often rely on past knowledge to act. Our own “training data” also ends at the present moment. If we see an unfamiliar furry creature on a leash walking towards us, we logically assume it is a dog. This assumption is based on previous knowledge. If it turns out to be a completely new and unknown animal species, we are surprised by the encounter.
Similarly, AI relies on existing knowledge when encountering new things. The difference is that, at present, we do not have AI tools capable of dynamically learning from their experiences and updating themselves. AI will always assume that the furry creature is a dog until its training data includes information that a new pet-friendly species has been discovered. A human, however, would learn this instantly.
Foreseeing the Future is Reasoning
Just as humans predict the future using reasoning and scenario planning, AI can also predict the future by drawing logical conclusions. Large language models are already capable of reasoning and performing tasks that require thought. AI can therefore look into the future if properly guided with prompts to make predictions. Many AI tools, such as ChatGPT and Perplexity, can also fetch additional information from the web, allowing them to base their reasoning on up-to-date data.
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